Statistical modeling to relate technology readiness to schedule

Projects from U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Department of Energy technology development activities provide historical data on project completion timelines versus readiness levels that were assessed during the life cycle a program. A statistical analysis was performed to develop method forecast future based technical maturity assessments. The goodness-of-fit model used for forecasting also evaluated, null hypothesis follows probability distribution could not be rejected at Type I error level 0.05. Several potential extensions using product methods, semi-Markov processes, Bayes nets are presented. limitations modeling discussed.